Critique on internation comparisons of firearm crimes and suicide rates

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Posted by Phil Lee (216.250.238.47) on November 18, 2000 at 19:46:

It is invalid to make a simplistic comparison of the murder rate in the US and Great Britain. While it may be true that you are 50 times more likely to be shot dead in the US, this ignores several important points, notably that you are also more likely to be killed by almost any other method in the US than in Great Britain. Most importantly, it must be noted that the level of armed crime in the US is rapidly dropping, while the long-term trend in Great Britain is upwards. In 1954, there were four recorded armed robberies in London. The first comprehensive statistics for England & Wales in 1969 show a total of 464 armed robberies. By 1993 that total was almost 6,000, although it has since dropped down from that high, in 1994 to 4,104 offences. However, the reality is that the severe controls that exist in Great Britain have not prevented a rise in armed crime, therefore the value of them is clearly questionable.

Firearm offences have also increased as a proportion of the total number of offences. For example, in the period 1969-71, firearms were involved in 7.4% of homicides. In the later period of 1993-95, they were involved in 9.8%. Higher levels of legal ownership of firearms does not appear to extend to a higher overall rate of suicide, suggesting a possible substitution effect where firearms are less available. For example, Australian statistics indicate that the rate of suicide in 1996 was 12.9/100,000 and the firearm-related suicide rate was 2.8/100,000. Two years later, after the enactment of tougher gun laws, firearm-related suicides had fallen to 1.5/100,000 but the overall suicide rate had risen to 15.1/100,000. Many countries with very tough gun laws such as Japan have very high suicide rates. Also the converse is true. The Czech Republic has middle-of-the-road gun laws yet most suicides are committed by jumping off bridges. There appear to be “suicide cultures” in that the choice of suicide method varies according to the culture of the country.

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: It is invalid to make a simplistic comparison of the murder rate in the US and Great Britain. While it may be true that you are 50 times more likely to be shot dead in the US, this ignores several important points, notably that you are also more likely to be killed by almost any other method in the US than in Great Britain. Most importantly, it must be noted that the level of armed crime in the US is rapidly dropping, while the long-term trend in Great Britain is upwards. In 1954, there were four recorded armed robberies in London. The first comprehensive statistics for England & Wales in 1969 show a total of 464 armed robberies. By 1993 that total was almost 6,000, although it has since dropped down from that high, in 1994 to 4,104 offences. However, the reality is that the severe controls that exist in Great Britain have not prevented a rise in armed crime, therefore the value of them is clearly questionable. : Firearm offences have also increased as a proportion of the total number of offences. For example, in the period 1969-71, firearms were involved in 7.4% of homicides. In the later period of 1993-95, they were involved in 9.8%. Higher levels of legal ownership of firearms does not appear to extend to a higher overall rate of suicide, suggesting a possible substitution effect where firearms are less available. For example, Australian statistics indicate that the rate of suicide in 1996 was 12.9/100,000 and the firearm-related suicide rate was 2.8/100,000. Two years later, after the enactment of tougher gun laws, firearm-related suicides had fallen to 1.5/100,000 but the overall suicide rate had risen to 15.1/100,000. Many countries with very tough gun laws such as Japan have very high suicide rates. Also the converse is true. The Czech Republic has middle-of-the-road gun laws yet most suicides are committed by jumping off bridges. There appear to be “suicide cultures” in that the choice of suicide method varies according to the culture of the country.

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