EVERY 48 HOURS

An Analysis Of Assault Rifles An Analysis Of Assault Rifles

Traced To Crime In Maryland

September 2006

authored by CeaseFire Maryland Inc. Board Member Susan Peschin

2nd comment on Ceasefire's "EVERY 48 HOURS"

Phil Lee1

Dec 7, 2006 (rev. 3/8/08)

[ Testimony ]

Ms. Peschin asserts on page 3:

Overall, the data shows that 789 assault rifles were traced to crime in Maryland over the four-year [1/2/1998 to 12/31/2001] period, but the actual number of assault weapons traced to crime in the state is likely to be higher. The search for a list of "assault rifles" first identified firearms that had certain common military calibers then narrowed the list by make and model. Entries with unknown makes and models were deleted. Finally, with the exception of the M1 Carbine, only those firearms that would be banned in Maryland under proposed assault weapons legislation from the 2006 legislative session were kept on the list. Therefore, the current data does not capture every assault weapon. According to the tracing data, the most common assault rifles traced to crime by make and model included:

21 Colt AR-15s

46 USA Military Surplus M1 Carbines

55 Ruger Mini14s

92 HiPoint 9mm carbines

294 North China Industries SKS variants

As context for Ms. Peschin's assertions, Baltimore City reported tracing 4,293 guns in 2000 [1/1/2000 to 12/31/2000] with more than 3139 (73%) being handguns. Nine of the 10 most frequently traced guns in Baltimore were handguns. The only long gun falling into this "top-ten" category was the Mossberg shotgun. None of Ms. Pechin's listed semi-automatic rifles are to be found in Baltimore's "top-ten" [Reference: Crime Gun Trace Reports (2000) Baltimore MD Youth Crime Gun Interdiction Initiative, BATF, July 2002]. In 2000 Baltimore had a handgun traced to crime every 2.8 hours or 17.2 handguns every 48 hours. 1431 of the traced handguns were revolvers so 7.8 revolvers were traced every 48 hours.

In 2000 Baltimore City reported 16,003 violent crimes 261 of which were homicides. Baltimore City's share of Maryland's violent crimes was 40.5% and of Maryland's homicides was 62.6%. So, Baltimore had between 40.5% and 62.6% of Maryland's violence but traced 17.2 as many handguns to crimes as all of Maryland did of "assault rifles".

In 2000 Maryland had 438 homicides or 2.4 every 48 hours or one every 20 hours. Six of these homicides were with rifles, which is one every 1460 hours. If all of these six homicides were with assault rifles, this rate still was far below even fists and feet (one homicide every 584 hours), knives (one homicide every 148 hours), blunt objects (one homicide every 283 hours) and handguns (one homicide every 30 hours).

In 2004 Maryland had 2 homicides with rifles and in 2005 it had 4 homicides with rifles. Both these years showed increased homicide compared to 2000 with 521 homicides in 2004 and 552 in 2005. So, even though violence increased from 2000 to 2004-2005, use of rifles decreased.

Maryland data taken from "Crime in Maryland, Uniform Crime Report", Maryland State Police, for the relevant year.

We should note that the 2006 version of Maryland’s AW ban bill is linked by http://mlis.state.md.us/2006rs/bills/hb/HB1367f.pdf

This bill defines SKS rifles as assault rifles only if they have detachable magazines or fixed magazines with capacity of more than 10 rounds. So, Ms. Peschin should describe for us how she could know which of the traced SKS had these features making them “assault weapons” so that she could claim "only those firearms that would be banned in Maryland under proposed assault weapons legislation from the 2006 legislative session were kept on the list." Likewise, she should justify her assertion that the 21 Colt AR-15s weren't sporter H-BAR rifles (which are not “assault weapons” under this bill), and that the 55 Ruger Mini14s all had folding stocks (since, otherwise, similarly, they aren’t “assault weapons”). The 92 HiPoint 9mm carbines aren’t “assault weapons” under the bill, so she is definitely padding her numbers with these firearms.

I'll bet that she has not verified any of the required “assault weapon” features on the traced firearms and that her assertion that these firearms would be included in the 2006 legislation is mostly wrong. Her assertion that an “assault weapon” is traced to crime in Maryland every 48 hours is wrong by a large factor.

1 Phil Lee has a PhD in Mathematics.